Crude oil rose nearly 2%, while metals generally fell. The overseas market generally fell by more than 1%, with LME zinc leading the decline, down 1.51% [overnight market]

SMM July 8 News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals on both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively, with overseas markets experiencing sharper declines than domestic ones. LME aluminum, LME lead, LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell by over 1%, with LME aluminum and LME lead down 1.02%, LME zinc down 1.51%, LME tin down 1.31%, and LME nickel down 1.05%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. The main contract of alumina rose by 0.23%, and the main contract of foundry aluminum rose by 0.13%.

In the ferrous metals series overnight, most metals fell, with stainless steel rising by 0.83%, and rebar and HRC falling by over 0.3%, with rebar down 0.36% and HRC down 0.31%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.24%, and coke fell by 0.35%.

In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold rose by 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell by 0.39%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.36%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.19%.

As of 6:47 a.m. on July 8, overnight closing prices

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning hosted a regular press conference on July 7. A reporter asked about US President Trump's criticism of BRICS countries for pursuing anti-US policies and threatening to impose a new 10% tariff on their member states. Mao Ning stated that China has repeatedly clarified its position on tariff hikes, emphasizing that there are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and protectionism has no future.

At yesterday's Foreign Ministry regular press conference, a reporter asked about the EU's postponement of signing a joint statement on climate action with China. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that over the past decade, China's non-fossil energy share in total energy consumption has increased to 17.9%, and carbon emission intensity has decreased by over 34%. China will continue to work with other countries to strengthen international cooperation on climate change and contribute to green transformation and sustainable development for humanity.

According to central bank data, China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), up 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) MoM, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold reserve increases.

Statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,317.4 billion, up $32.2 billion from the end of May, a rise of 0.98%. Factors such as exchange rate conversion and changes in asset prices contributed to the increase in foreign exchange reserves that month.

US Dollar Aspects:

The US dollar index rose by 0.59% to 97.55, continuing its upward trend from last week, when data showing the resilience of the labour market delayed market expectations for an imminent easing of monetary policy by the US Fed. Previously, US President Trump announced that new tariffs would be imposed on a series of countries including Japan and South Korea starting August 1. According to CCTV News, on July 7 local time, US President Trump posted letters addressed to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on social media platforms, declaring that the US would impose a 25% tariff on all Japanese and South Korean products exported to the US starting August 1, 2025.

Additionally, on July 7 local time, US President Trump stated that the US would impose a 25% tariff on all Kazakhstani and Malaysian products exported to the US, a 30% tariff on all South African products, and a 40% tariff on all Laotian and Burmese products starting August 1, 2025.

In other currencies:

The US dollar's rise against the yen was the most notable, closing up 1.09% at 146.13.

The pound fell 0.26% to $1.362 but remained near its strongest level since October 2021.

Risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars declined by 0.79% and 0.74%, respectively, as both countries are set to make monetary policy decisions in the next two days.

On the macro front:

Today, the following data will be released: the US June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, US June New York Fed 3-year inflation expectations, US June New York Fed 1-year gold gain expectations, Japan's May trade balance (Bank of Japan seasonally adjusted based on customs data), Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending July 6, Australia's July 8 cash rate, Germany's May seasonally adjusted export monthly rate, France's May trade balance, and Canada's June IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI.

Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Notably, the US tariff suspension period expires on July 8. On April 2, Trump announced so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on products exported to the US from dozens of countries globally, but later postponed implementation for 90 days under pressure.

In crude oil:

Oil prices in both markets rose overnight, with WTI up 1.37% and Brent up 1.9%. Signs of robust demand offset concerns about OPEC+'s higher-than-expected production increase in August and potential new impacts from US tariffs.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said, "Supply certainly appears to be rising, yet strong demand is also still exceeding expectations." Last week's tourism statistics showed that Americans set a record high for road and air travel during the Independence Day holiday. On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its OPEC+ allies agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, surpassing the previous three-month increase of 411,000 barrels. Analysts at RBC Capital said in a report that the OPEC+ decision would put nearly 80% of the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by eight OPEC producers back on the market.

However, analysts said that actual production increases have so far fallen short of planned levels, and most of the supply has come from Saudi Arabia. To demonstrate confidence in oil demand, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for August sales to Asia to a four-month high on Sunday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect OPEC+ to announce a final increase of 550,000 barrels per day for September at its next meeting on August 3. (Wenhua Comprehensive)